India HIV cases likely to fall, says UNAIDS

India will report new estimates of HIV/ AIDS infections next month that could show a sharp drop from earlier surveys that left the country with most cases worldwide, a UNAIDS official said Saturday.

Previous estimates from India's National AIDS Control Organisation (NACO) have put the number of HIV cases at 5.2 million, while the
United Nations AIDS arm in 2006 estimated 5.7 million cases -- the highest in the world.

NACO, UNAIDS and other organisations are now compiling data collected last year in what they termed the most detailed effort to count those infected with HIV, the virus that leads to fatal AIDS, in the nation of 1.1 billion.

"Most probably the figures will be lower than we thought," Dennis Broun, country director for UNAIDS India told AFP Saturday, without specifying a number.

"When UNAIDS gave the estimate of 5.7 million in India we said it could as low as 3.4 million and as high as nine. That is a very broad range. It might be that it could be even lower."

A report in India's Hindustan Times daily Saturday said the new estimate could be around 3.5 million but Indian officials working on the new numbers said it was too early to tell what the final tally would be.

The officials said the figures would be the most accurate yet, with vastly more data available from a larger number of testing sites used as markers for the presence of the disease in low and high-risk groups.

More than 1,100 such sites were used compared to 700 in previous years, said NACO's epidemiologist Ajay Kumar Khera.

"With HIV it is very difficult to find out the numbers -- you have to make a guess. This year it will be a better guess," Khera told AFP.

The numbers will also include the findings of a wide-ranging population health survey that tested 100,000 adults randomly between December 2005 and August 2006.

India said Friday the final numbers would give it a better picture of the epidemic and that trends showed lower rates of HIV among expectant mothers in southern states, a sign strong prevention efforts there were working.

But UNAIDS' Broun also sounded a note of caution.

"Among men who have sex with men and injecting drug users the prevalence rate is not decreasing and this is a great concern," said Broun.